World Trends

I just finished the book Mind Set! by John Naisbitt. He is the author of Megatrends, among other things. He has a unique and highly successful method for observing large-scale trends and predicting how they will play out in the future. All of his predictions in Megatrends came to fruition.

This book (written in 2006) is about how our mindsets play into what we see in the world around us. By having the right mindsets, we improve our chances of understanding the world around us and anticipating how the world will be shaped in our immediate future. This can help us in our decision-making.

Part I lists eleven mindsets:

1. While many things change, most things remain constant
2. The future is embedded in the present
3. Focus on the score of the game
4. Understanding how powerful it is not to have to be right
5. See the future as a picture puzzle
6. Don't get so far ahead of the parade that people don't know you're in it
7. Resistance to change falls if benefits are real
8. Things that we expect to happen always happen more slowly
9. You don't get results by solving problems but by exploiting opportunities
10. Don't add unless you subtract
11. Don't forget the ecology of technology

Part II gives some insights into five trends for the future:

1. A visual culture is taking over the world - visual communication has overtaken written communication as the most common form of spreading information or ideas
2. The influence of nation-states is diminishing as economic domains become more predominant
3. Nations that adapt to economic domain centrality will lead the world (China) - economic domain centrality encourages entrepreneurship and encourages growth (Adam Smith model)
4. Nations that fail to adapt to economic domain centrality will decline unless they redirect (Europe, USA) - this is because you cannot simultaneously maintain economic supremacy and promote social welfare (in the Marxian sense) without overly regulating entrepreneurship and thereby discouraging growth
5. Success in the future will be built by opportunity feeders, not problem solvers

Incidentally, I read the book because of a class that I attended this weekend at George Wythe College - we discussed the five trends and spoke about current events.

I loved the book - I fully intend to keep track of John Naisbitt in the future. He is easy to read and makes a lot of sense. I recommend it for people who are hungry for modern cultural understanding.